Thursday, 15 November 2007
the economic outlook
I really do feel in my bones that a crunch is coming; the subprime domino effect, the oil price riding at record highs and the housing market starting to crumple. Morgan Stanley say there's a 40% chance of a recession.
It could be fantastic news for sales of more modest economical cars, reining in on flying and inessential luxuries, home energy efficiency, local swapping and sharing schemes and anything which basically saves you lots of money while also saving the planet. Less good news for corporate sustainability commitments, high employment, more 'luxury' green categories ie premium priced eg organic, fairtrade.
Last time something like this happened (the dotcom crash) I had a really nice year, did an MSc, got to know our new baby, but it was a flipping disaster from the point of view of persuading corporates to invest in sustainability themed documentaries and content which is what I was trying to do workwise at the time with a partner from broadcasting.
Anyway life will go on, it might on balance do us quite a bit of good to have a bit of a consumerist purge.
I wonder what it might be called? The carbon crisis. The last days of the splurge? Answers on a postcard/comment :J