tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post850642991988491235..comments2024-01-15T00:37:41.436-08:00Comments on greenormal: It is much worse than we thought (MUCH worse)John Granthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05799770191061315053noreply@blogger.comBlogger44125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-39618456489466938162008-04-16T09:26:00.000-07:002008-04-16T09:26:00.000-07:00A rapid response US NASA style program is needed t...A rapid response US NASA style program is needed to get the world off the dime. Legislation will take 30 to 50 years to reach the average consumer whose life style is a major contributor to greenhouse gas production. I have been proposing such a plan for some time now called the, "Global Open Source Initiative" or GOSI for short. I have also put together a companion piece called the, "Ten Components". You can download both from www.sandrewsjr.net/gosi/proposal . If you believe that GOSI represents a potential solution, please promote it wherever you can. I agree with Dr. Hansen, we have a very small window of opportunity to avoid catastrophe.<BR/><BR/>Sumner R. Andrews Jr.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-60668442342024889112008-03-01T05:47:00.000-08:002008-03-01T05:47:00.000-08:00What an eyeopening and inspiring post, there are ...What an eyeopening and inspiring post, there are so many ostensibly intractable issues at hand here in my youthful head, its great to see so much insightful debate. <BR/><BR/>I would love to help in any way possible, keep track, and hopefully contribute to developments.<BR/><BR/>- how to convert potentially apolyptic information into positive, motivated, binding and productive societal behaviour really gets the cogs turning.<BR/><BR/>SethSeth Campbellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07930249516503662859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-57276939191271900912008-02-20T14:00:00.000-08:002008-02-20T14:00:00.000-08:00very thoughtful & thought provoking commentI'm sor...very thoughtful & thought provoking comment<BR/><BR/>I'm sorry to have been so sceptical last time you posted, in my experience there is a lot of dubiously motivated commentary around these issues<BR/><BR/>wasnt there for the q&a, but saw wasdell the following week and he certainly disavowed that population view - agreed he was an IPCC reviewer - agreed Al Gore gets flack at times<BR/><BR/>unusually for blogging I'd like to reflect on what you've said before replying<BR/><BR/>thanks for sticking with us<BR/><BR/>my main interest is in the gap between what most models (including the spread within IPCC) suggest needs to be done and any evident action; how to mobilise people, companies, governments<BR/><BR/>:JJohn Granthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05799770191061315053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-88442471850692513832008-02-19T07:06:00.000-08:002008-02-19T07:06:00.000-08:00From " A Real Scientist"John apologies for being a...From " A Real Scientist"<BR/>John apologies for being anonymous, I work for a UK Govt. Agency, so I can convey science but not personal opinion, hence anonimity. I am far from being a sceptic I am one of the original scientists in the UK who has for almost two decades communicated the science of CC to society. Any how!<BR/>You stated that Stern assumed that the selection of models upon which his report were based were "true". Stern used results from physically based models that represent the enviornment and climate and economic models. The Stern report does include caveats about the models used. Economic models in particular are not based upon physical laws and the socio-economic system is not predictable, contrary to what Wadsell and Schellnhuber would have you believe. You also indicate that you think that Wadsell's conceptual model is "true"! <BR/><BR/>Also the results from climate model experiments are scenarios, not forecasts! There is a big difference here.<BR/><BR/>Stern did not include a runaway heating scenario as no models to date show this, however the hypotheis is sound, but if we look at high-impact low probablility events we also need to give equal weight to ET impacts and major geophysical events as well. At the moment the IPCC estimates are classed as high probablity, with recognisable damaging though not planet threatening impacts.<BR/><BR/>I was at the Tommorow's company briefing, Wadsell during the questions strongly advocated population control, hence my comments to Wadsell and any other advocates of such measures. Practice what you preach on yourself and family.<BR/><BR/>With regards Wadsell being an IPCC Author, I can only find mention of him as a reviewer not an author. You use Al Gore as an example, a question to debate is whether Al has through slight exageration damaged the credibility of climate scientists (Al remember is not a climate scientist).<BR/><BR/>With reference to the post from the scptic and the eply that they should be ignored this is generally valid. Howvere I came across a sceptic at a recent public event where I was speaking. I had a good chat with him afterwards. I gained a useful insight into what was driving his scepticism. This was not driven by a love of US policies, but rather surprisingly he was an anti-globalisation environmentalist. <BR/> He was concerned that the CC was being used to develop a system of global governance and a removal of indiviual liberty. One example of this is personal carbon credits. Such as system would require an extra dimension to state control. <BR/><BR/>Also there is alos the argument, advocated by scientists like Mike Hulme that creating Alarmism will lead to people turning away and accepting that as an individual that they can not do anything. I personally feel that we are already passed the point of no return. BUT I do not support any actions that use the CC issue to support a political ideology, whatever it's colour.<BR/><BR/>Any how hope this helps.<BR/>Cheers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-12974663794194104492008-02-19T04:21:00.000-08:002008-02-19T04:21:00.000-08:00It's not personal Ed you just touched a nerve. I'm...It's not personal Ed you just touched a nerve. I'm all for most of what that book is about. But I am not for hiding the painful truth of how seriously bad the situation may be, you cant empower people while hiding information from them and motivation is born much more out of a gripping sense of necessity as nice feelings. Martin Luther King knew all of that too, he didnt pull his punches. <BR/><BR/>Having said which 'we're all doomed' absent a call to action or any chance of remedy would be silly (counterproductive and also not justified by the evidence either way) and if that was the point you wanted to make I agree.John Granthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05799770191061315053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-80285940748073768242008-02-18T20:35:00.000-08:002008-02-18T20:35:00.000-08:00Wow John,Either you aren't aware of the book's pre...Wow John,<BR/>Either you aren't aware of the book's premise, or you misunderstood me, or possibly, I'm an idiot. Probably the later. In fact, "Break Through" acknowledges the "EMERGENCY" and is trying to find a way to motivate the masses to do something about it. All in all, didn't mean to offend.<BR/>Good luck,<BR/>EdEd Reillyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03052173132850346492noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-11969051699012708422008-02-18T17:22:00.000-08:002008-02-18T17:22:00.000-08:00I've heard that point made before (although i didn...I've heard that point made before (although i didnt know it was also being copied from that book) - anyway it's a superficial view if you ask me (and you put it on my blog, so in sense yes you did ask me :)<BR/><BR/>I dont know anyone who is serious about the problem who doesnt think we should solve it. But what bearing does your personal feeling of discomfort have (about what scientists I have met think is the truth of the matter - I was just trying to spell out what they were saying, although they themselves used the words 'mass extinction')?<BR/><BR/>I do however know the "I have a dream speech" extremely well - it's something I have studied - how he got such rousing passion into the musical rhythm, the repetition and prophetic writing. How he got his very difficult to hear message across.<BR/><BR/>Here's some samples: <BR/><BR/>"But one hundred years later, the Negro still is not free. One hundred years later, the life of the Negro is still sadly crippled by the manacles of segregation and the chains of discrimination. One hundred years later, the Negro lives on a lonely island of poverty in the midst of a vast ocean of material prosperity. One hundred years later, the Negro is still languishing in the corners of American society and finds himself an exile in his own land. So we have come here today to dramatize a shameful condition."<BR/><BR/>"We have also come to this hallowed spot to remind America of the fierce urgency of now. This is no time to engage in the luxury of cooling off or to take the tranquilizing drug of gradualism. Now is the time to make real the promises of democracy. Now is the time to rise from the dark and desolate valley of segregation to the sunlit path of racial justice. Now is the time to lift our nation from the quick sands of racial injustice to the solid rock of brotherhood. Now is the time to make justice a reality for all of God's children."<BR/><BR/>"As we walk, we must make the pledge that we shall always march ahead. We cannot turn back. There are those who are asking the devotees of civil rights, "When will you be satisfied?" We can never be satisfied as long as the Negro is the victim of the unspeakable horrors of police brutality. We can never be satisfied, as long as our bodies, heavy with the fatigue of travel, cannot gain lodging in the motels of the highways and the hotels of the cities. We cannot be satisfied as long as the Negro's basic mobility is from a smaller ghetto to a larger one. We can never be satisfied as long as our children are stripped of their selfhood and robbed of their dignity by signs stating "For Whites Only". We cannot be satisfied as long as a Negro in Mississippi cannot vote and a Negro in New York believes he has nothing for which to vote. No, no, we are not satisfied, and we will not be satisfied until justice rolls down like waters and righteousness like a mighty stream."<BR/><BR/>I have a dream in other is not a simplistic speech about focusing on the possibility or optimism or ignoring the painful truths as some seem to think it was (working only from the title - as if it were somehow confused in their minds with john Lennon's "Imagine"?). <BR/><BR/>It is the thundering voice of the dispossessed, the spat upon, the angry and yet dignified black people of America - brought there in chains - who through their very dignity in suffering have by now in the eyes of the speaker already won the moral argument.<BR/><BR/>And even in the midst of all that darkness, yes he has a dream:<BR/><BR/>"I have a dream that one day, down in Alabama, with its vicious racists, with its governor having his lips dripping with the words of interposition and nullification; one day right there in Alabama, little black boys and black girls will be able to join hands with little white boys and white girls as sisters and brothers.<BR/>I have a dream today. I have a dream that one day every valley shall be exalted, every hill and mountain shall be made low, the rough places will be made plain, and the crooked places will be made straight, and the glory of the Lord shall be revealed, and all flesh shall see it together.<BR/>This is our hope. This is the faith that I go back to the South with. With this faith we will be able to hew out of the mountain of despair a stone of hope. With this faith we will be able to transform the jangling discords of our nation into a beautiful symphony of brotherhood. With this faith we will be able to work together, to pray together, to struggle together, to go to jail together, to stand up for freedom together, knowing that we will be free one day."<BR/><BR/>All I can say is amen to that. There are several hundred posts on this blog. I'd guess that less than 1% are about the problem. But if you wont take the problem seriously, realise in a fully human sense what a faction among the leading climate scientists are saying we are doing...?<BR/><BR/>I havent heard anyone say it is too late to avert this disaster. But I have heard many voices (Al Gore's included) bewailing the fact that so few seem to appreciate that this is an EMERGENCY.<BR/><BR/>Finally what I wrote was my authentic emotional response to what I had just heard. I didnt stick it on the front page of a newspaper, I wrote it on my blog; and it caused some interesting reactions.John Granthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05799770191061315053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-54664884271270058532008-02-18T16:40:00.000-08:002008-02-18T16:40:00.000-08:00Hi John,I highly recommend you read: "Break Throug...Hi John,<BR/>I highly recommend you read: "Break Through: The Death of the Environmental Movement". It opens by telling the story of Martin Luther KIng's "I have a dream speech", which he actually began with "I have a nightmare" until he changed course to the speech that changed history. <BR/><BR/>My point is simple. Your post is the "I have a nightmare" version of the speech. We need to find the dream. The end of the world isn't a very motivating thought. I'd love to help find the dream with you any way I can. Let me know how I can help.<BR/>Ed Reilly reilly.ed@gmail.comEd Reillyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03052173132850346492noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-20038527631245243722008-02-14T15:21:00.000-08:002008-02-14T15:21:00.000-08:00COMMENT FROM JOHN NISSENJohn Grant identifies thre...COMMENT FROM JOHN NISSEN<BR/><BR/>John Grant identifies three issues:<BR/>1. the need for people to get involved;<BR/>2. the extent to which, under any reading of the climate model, averting disaster looks impossible, given current politics and socio-economics;<BR/>3. use of viral communication.<BR/><BR/>I'd like to tackle the second point. There are many readings of the climate model, ranging from the anthropomorphic global warming deniers, through IPCC, Jim Hansen (NASA GISS) to Peter Wadhams and David Wasdell, and then on to Albert Kallio (FIPC) and myself. The deniers say we should do nothing. The IPCC and Jim Hansen say we should reduce emissions, and all will be OK if we do not allow the temperature to rise more than 1 degree (Hansen) or 2 degrees (IPCC). Peter and David say we face the collapse of civilisation and a 6th extinction event if we do not act quickly because of positive feedback in the climate system. We probably have to employ bio-engineering techniques (such as biochar or agrichar) to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, in addition to drastic emission cuts. Albert and I are concerned about the positive feedback already starting to dominate the system, especially as regards the albedo effect as the Arctic sea ice melts in summer. Thus we believe that averting disaster involves geo-engineering to save the sea ice, as well as drastic emission cuts and bio-engineering. <BR/><BR/>If you take the position of IPCC or Hansen, then greedy/selfish people in the world will continue with business as usual, and averting disaster looks impossible. (Consider the lack of progress at Bali.)<BR/><BR/>If however you take the position of Peter, David, Albert or myself, then either we succeed in averting disaster or we are <B> all </B> doomed. If this position is accepted across the world, then everybody will want success and survival. When they realise the enormity of the challenge faced by humanity, everybody should pull together to fight the common enemy, which is global warming. Failure is not an option.<BR/><BR/>On the precautionary principle, the latter position has to be taken. And the timescale for action has to be "as soon and as quickly as conceivable". Time is against us, as Paul points out. The solar radiation is about to rise, adding to the climate forcing which we are trying to counter, see:<BR/><A HREF="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/" REL="nofollow">Temperature data for 2007</A> <BR/><BR/><I>Furthermore, recent sighting of the first sunspot of reversed polarity… signifies that the ~ 4-year period of increasing solar irradiance is about to get underway.</I>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-66966057882118204622008-02-14T13:56:00.000-08:002008-02-14T13:56:00.000-08:00Yes I heard that too, I think they (broader commun...Yes I heard that too, I think they (broader community of climate experts) find it hard to agree why there was such an anomoly and I am sure I'm not qualified to judge... but a common sense view says it's a bit wierd (as were the 13C spring conditions in uk this week, or more seriously the worst snow in China in 50 years, carpeting desert and subtropical regions).John Granthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05799770191061315053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-38828091848013083102008-02-13T23:04:00.000-08:002008-02-13T23:04:00.000-08:00I just came across this link which covers "The unu...I just came across this link which covers <BR/><BR/>"The unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in the cool phase of its natural El Niño-La Niña cycle."<BR/><BR/>http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/<BR/><BR/>Seems to be getting worse.........Paul Fhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00082678505726325707noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-22891703539521739842008-02-13T15:18:00.000-08:002008-02-13T15:18:00.000-08:00Lizzie I thin k thatäs a really important point an...Lizzie I thin k thatäs a really important point and one I have certainly been wrestling with.<BR/><BR/>In the interests of having that debate... arent there several points that might need to be unbundled and thought through separately?<BR/><BR/>1. the need for people to feel that they can be part of the solution, involved, take action, have hope<BR/><BR/>2. the extent to which under any reading of the climate data/model it looks unrealistic that disaster could be averted eg because what needs to be done is too great to be considered realistic givent the current starting point and political-commercial-social realities<BR/><BR/>3. the use of viral communications, ie those that pass between people in a cascade rather than conventional channels only<BR/><BR/>There's a lot to think about and debate within each heading. <BR/><BR/>What I am not considering at the moment is letting loose a 'doomsday' message which fell foul of 1 & 2, rather I had in mind an involvement campaign (an analogy would be the 'make poverty history' campaign) where people became a growing visible 'vote' for action by large institutions. And there is further thinking to be done about this.<BR/><BR/>It's 2. that worries me most & I think you are right to raise it - responsible communications would include the truth that we DONT know for certain what the worst case scenario is - but would acknowledge that the range of scenarios which fit current climate data (even if only working with IPCC) all indicate fairly drastic action is needed. And drastic consequences if it is not taken soon. That's not news, but it's not uppermost in the public mind and political agenda in the way it was a year ago.<BR/><BR/>Lots to think about.John Granthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05799770191061315053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-32101325991221180892008-02-13T10:40:00.000-08:002008-02-13T10:40:00.000-08:00Brilliant what you're trying to do. Shocking post,...Brilliant what you're trying to do. Shocking post, but in many ways it's shocking that it's not as shocking as it should be... if you get my drift.<BR/><BR/>On thing I would be careful of in trying to reach people and go viral, is that already people are getting eco-apathy. I've seriously heard people say things along the lines of "well if we're all screwed anyway I'm going to the Bahamas and driving my 4x4 anyway". People have to be shocked, but also given hope and <B>something they can do about it</B>. Even if this thing actually isn't that important in itself, it will help people feel they are contributing to the solution and prevent people giving up because they think we're all doomed whatever we do.<BR/><BR/>Lizzie WhitebreadAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-20593252005893546832008-02-12T07:28:00.000-08:002008-02-12T07:28:00.000-08:00I agree(except for the bit about Santa who is of c...I agree<BR/><BR/>(except for the bit about Santa who is of course real and majorly pissed off about the melting of his ancestral home - I heard a rumour that there may be nothing in the world's stocking next year...)<BR/><BR/>:JJohn Granthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05799770191061315053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-11204333885117099922008-02-12T06:26:00.000-08:002008-02-12T06:26:00.000-08:00In response to the climate change denier, the best...In response to the climate change denier, the best course of action with these people is not to engage in a discussion or argument.<BR/><BR/>If you do engage with them you give validity to their view. Evolutionists have the same stance with intelligent designers and its why they wont openly debate them on the facts.<BR/><BR/>I look at it like if someone told me they thought Santa was real or that smoking was good for you, I just wouldn't bother to explain my point, people like this don't respond to logic.Paul Fhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00082678505726325707noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-48256539439137245362008-02-12T04:09:00.000-08:002008-02-12T04:09:00.000-08:00Thanks JohnI believe the message behind people who...Thanks John<BR/><BR/>I believe the message behind people who deny global warming is that we should do nothing. To such people, I suggest that they examine the precautionary principle, which is very well expounded here:<BR/><BR/>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oi8651Acu4John Nissenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17660609746009849372noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-9857272771277375162008-02-12T04:02:00.000-08:002008-02-12T04:02:00.000-08:00it's funny how in the last year the climate change...it's funny how in the last year the climate change deniers look more and more isolated and pathetic, it never would have taken a week in 'the old days' for some idiot to post 'natural cycle' type nonsense<BR/><BR/>if anybody in the world still doesnt know, there is no serious scientific dispute left about manmade global warming whatsoever<BR/><BR/>I'm tempted to just delete this stuff but am leaving it here as a kind of curiosity, an echo of 2006 or so (remember the Channel 4 programme...?)<BR/><BR/>by now it has all the credibility (and moral substance) of denying that smoking is linked to cancer<BR/><BR/>shame on you anon - and presumably you are ashamed or you would publish real contact details so that we can come and write on your blogs<BR/><BR/>ps I will delete further climate change denier posts, they offend me given the severity of the problems, one is plenty thank youJohn Granthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05799770191061315053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-7694544604826543902008-02-12T03:30:00.000-08:002008-02-12T03:30:00.000-08:00Temperatures have fluctuated on this planet since ...Temperatures have fluctuated on this planet since the start of time man. We are in an 'interglacial' period at the moment, and at some point wil again return to a glacial period.<BR/><BR/>NASA recently announced that substantial changes are occurring on the surface of the Sun which could bring about the next long lasting cold era.<BR/><BR/>“When the surface movement slows down, sunspot counts drop significantly. And when we have sunspot counts lower than 50 it means only one thing - an intense cold climate, globally,” Casey said.<BR/>http://www.redicecreations.com/article.php?id=2659Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-57593422108499109512008-02-11T13:33:00.000-08:002008-02-11T13:33:00.000-08:00Hello John,I was at the presentation to Tomorrow's...Hello John,<BR/><BR/>I was at the presentation to Tomorrow's Company on Tuesday. With this global emergency situation we need a plan of action, and leadership to pull it through. Failure is not an option. <BR/><BR/>Unfortunately we have to do more than reducing emissions. I wrote the following to the distinguished climate scientist, Professor Jim Hansen of NASA GISS, who I briefly met on Thursday:<BR/><BR/>----<BR/><BR/>Dear Professor:<BR/><BR/>You suggest a reduction of CO2 to 350ppm. My concern: <B> Emissions reduction is not enough </B><BR/> <BR/>I told you I was worried by existing positive feedback, particularly from the albedo effect of melting of the Arctic sea ice, whose summer extent could vanish by 2013 or earlier. You said you thought that the positive feedback would change into a negative feedback when GHG levels were reduced. But the albedo feedback is <B> driven by temperature</B>, not GHGs. Thus if we reduced emissions to zero tomorrow, the feedback forcing would continue, the temperature would continue to rise, and the feedback would continue to get stronger.<BR/> <BR/>I fear that, once the summer sea ice is gone, the regional albedo effect will be sufficient to ensure the continued acceleration of Greenland ice sheet melt, with the possibility of a sudden sea level rise of a metre or two if the ice sheet becomes unstable. Meanwhile, the albedo effect could push up global temperatures, to melt tundra, permafrost and lakes containing trapped methane, providing further positive feedback.<BR/> <BR/>Albedo forcing is implicated in the Milankovitch cycles, to amplify relatively small changes in insolation. So how much is the albedo forcing of Arctic sea ice?<BR/>1. The Arctic sea may have provided negative forcing to end periods of global warming in the past;<BR/>2. It is claimed that the combined forcing of the Arctic and Antarctic albedo effect has already grown to the level of anthropogenic forcing;<BR/>3. Glacier mass loss has accelerated by about 100% per decade since 1985, whereas CO2 forcing has only grown about 30% per decade, and positive feedback from the albedo effect could account for the difference.<BR/>4. Calculations suggest that the albedo effect of zero Arctic sea ice would be 1-2 Watts per metre squared, averaged over the planet and the year.<BR/> <BR/>It seems that we are observing the beginnings of the climate system tipping into a super hot state, and we may be within a few years of the point of no return.<BR/> <BR/>Thus, it is necessary <B> both to reduce emissions and to apply geo-engineering and bio-engineering techniques </B> on a massive scale and on a timescale to avoid positive feedback overwhelming our ability to redress the planet's energy imbalance. We are setting up a group to consider an appropriate plan of action. Could we have your support?<BR/><BR/>---<BR/><BR/>John Nissen, Chiswick, W4John Nissenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17660609746009849372noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-51842210175834943032008-02-11T02:19:00.000-08:002008-02-11T02:19:00.000-08:00sounds good - hope the first meeting goes well.sounds good - hope the first meeting goes well.david Hawksworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17082213727965590372noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-87441100418004581982008-02-09T03:09:00.000-08:002008-02-09T03:09:00.000-08:00thanks David, there's some really helpful thoughts...thanks David, there's some really helpful thoughts and ideas in that post. I have a meeting to discuss a potential video with the scientists next week, if that goes well may be bothering you to join a working party! I love the idea of a crowd sourced airtime buy for a start :JJohn Granthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05799770191061315053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-64962167479240381072008-02-09T02:42:00.000-08:002008-02-09T02:42:00.000-08:00I can't paste the link so you can use this...http:...I can't paste the link so you can use this...<BR/><BR/>http://thebobal.blogspot.com/david Hawksworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17082213727965590372noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-43588826066216821092008-02-09T02:33:00.000-08:002008-02-09T02:33:00.000-08:00Hi John,I have just posted a load of thoughts on h...Hi John,<BR/><BR/>I have just posted a load of thoughts on how to re-package and promote this research. Could be way off the mark without knowing the brief but those of us that work in marketing get pretty used to working like that :) It felt like a good exercise and I hope there are a couple of ideas in there that you can use. <BR/><BR/>http://thebobal.blogspot.com/2008/02/landmarks-in-climate-change-response.htmldavid Hawksworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17082213727965590372noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-60290381331442104732008-02-09T02:28:00.000-08:002008-02-09T02:28:00.000-08:00Here's the article from the New Scientist Neil P p...Here's the article from the New Scientist Neil P pointed to (it's subscriber only on their site but was reproduced in full on several blogs):<BR/><BR/>Climate tipping points loom large - Fred Pearce<BR/>SOME climate tipping points may already have been passed, and others may be closer than we thought, it emerged this week. Runaway loss of Arctic sea ice may now be inevitable. Even more worrying, and very likely, is the collapse of the giant Greenland ice sheet. So said Tim Lenton of the University of East Anglia, UK, speaking on Monday at a meeting on complexity in nature, organised by the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge.<BR/>Lenton warned the meeting that global warming might trigger tipping points that could cause runaway warming or catastrophic sea-level rise. The risks are far greater than suggested in the current IPCC report, he says.<BR/>Yet climate modellers are in a quandary. As models get better and forecasts more alarming, their confidence in the detail of their predictions is evaporating.<BR/>The IPCC says the Greenland ice sheet will take at least 1000 years to melt. But Lenton’s group - whose members include John Schellnhuber, the chief scientist on climate change at the recent G8 meeting in Germany - says the sheet could break up within 300 years, raising sea levels by 7 metres. This would flood hundreds of millions of people or more out of their homes. “We are close to being committed to a collapse of the Greenland ice sheet,” Lenton says. “But we don’t think we have passed the tipping point yet.” The calculations show the Greenland collapse could be triggered by temperatures 1 °C warmer than today’s, of which 0.7 °C is already “in the pipeline”, held up by time lags in the system.<BR/>“We are close to being committed to a collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, but we don’t think we have passed the tipping point”<BR/>Lenton’s study has identified eight dangerous tipping points that could be passed this century. Several could have a cascade effect, with each triggering the next, he says.<BR/>The tipping points include a collapse of a global ocean circulation system known as the thermohaline circulation. Besides shutting down the Gulf Stream, this could also “switch off” the Asian monsoon and warm the Southern Ocean, perhaps destabilising the West Antarctica ice sheet. This would cause a further 7-metre rise in sea levels. Likewise, warming may cause a near-permanent El Niño in the Pacific, which would hasten a runaway burning of the Amazon rainforest and its disappearance by mid-century.<BR/>The existence of potential climate-change tipping points should dramatically alter economists’ assessments of how much climate change we should prevent, said Lenton. The trouble is, the discovery of tipping points has also unmasked growing uncertainty about the reliability of conventional climate models.<BR/>At the Cambridge meeting Lenny Smith, a statistician at the London School of Economics, warned about the “naive realism” of current climate modelling. “Our models are being over-interpreted and misinterpreted,” he said. “They are getting better; I don’t want to trash them per se. But as we change our predictions, how do we maintain the credibility of the science?” Over-interpretation of models is already leading to poor financial decision-making, Smith says. “We need to drop the pretence that they are nearly perfect.”<BR/>He singled out for criticism the British government’s UK Climate Impacts Programme and Met Office. He accused both of making detailed climate projections for regions of the UK when global climate models disagree strongly about how climate change will affect the British Isles.<BR/>Smith is co-author, with Dave Stainforth of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in Oxford, of a paper published this week on confidence and uncertainty in climate predictions (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2074). It is one of several papers on the shortfalls of current climate models.<BR/>Some authors say modellers should drop single predictions and instead offer probabilities of different climate futures. But Smith and Stainforth say this approach could be “misleading to the users of climate science in wider society”. Borrowing a phrase from former US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Smith told his Cambridge audience that there were “too many unknown unknowns” for such probabilities to be useful.<BR/>Policy-makers, he said, “think we know much more than we actually know. We need to be more open about our uncertainties.” Meanwhile, the tipping points loom.John Granthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05799770191061315053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6527171481755503539.post-56748958004092196032008-02-09T02:19:00.000-08:002008-02-09T02:19:00.000-08:00if you want to read about accelerating effects fir...if you want to read about accelerating effects first hand (the scientific evidence) here's a link to the Scientific American story on the ice at the North pole: http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=28591A94-E7F2-99DF-31EE65D88983AE31<BR/><BR/>To quote this vs the IPCC models:<BR/>""The sea ice cover this year has reached a new record low," says Mark Serreze, senior research scientist at the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo. "It's not just that we beat the old record, we annihilated it."<BR/><BR/>As a result of atmospheric patterns that both warmed the air and reduced cloud cover as well as increased residual heat in newly exposed ocean waters, such melting helped open the fabled Northwest Passage for the first time [see photo] this summer and presaged tough times for polar bears and other Arctic animals that rely on sea ice to survive, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Such precipitous loss of ice cover far outpaces anything climate models or scientists have predicted."<BR/><BR/>In his interview in time magazine last December Al Gore commented: "The north polar ice cap, according to the best scientists in the world, fell off a cliff this fall. The signs that the world is spinning out of kilter are increasingly difficult to misinterpret. The question is how to convince enough people to join a critical mass of urgent opinion, in the U.S. and the rest of the world.<BR/>Why hasn't that message been fully received yet?<BR/>I spend a lot of time asking myself that question. I think we're making progress; it's just that nothing has matched the scale of the response that is truly needed. The unprecedented nature of this crisis does make it difficult to communicate. We naturally tend to confuse the unprecedented with the improbable. But we have become capable of doing catastrophic damage without realizing it."John Granthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05799770191061315053noreply@blogger.com